Ceuta: Spain prepares its scenarios in the face of a possible “migration weapon”

The first study, published by the Higher School of the Armed Forces (ESFAS), attached to the Centre for Superior Studies of National Defence (CESEDEN), bears the title “Las migraciones desde África a España: una herramienta de política exterior”. The document analyses irregular migration not only as a social and humanitarian phenomenon, but also as an element that can be used in international relations.

The study focuses in particular on the Ceuta crisis of May 2021, when several thousand people reached the Spanish enclave from Morocco amid heightened diplomatic tensions between Rabat and Madrid. The author presents this episode as an example of how migration flows can become a lever of diplomatic pressure.

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A second work published by ESFAS, entitled “Estrategias de disuasión española frente a amenazas no compartidas en el siglo XXI”, analyses Spain’s response to so-called hybrid threats. The study examines in particular the tensions surrounding Ceuta and Melilla, Morocco’s rearmament and scenarios in which several means of pressure can be combined.

Morocco at the centre of Spanish military considerations

The authors focus on a significant shift in the way Madrid views its security: crises no longer involve only a conventional military confrontation. They can also take the form of diplomatic, economic, informational or migratory pressure.

A third analysis published in 2026 by the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies (IEEE), attached to the Ministry of Defence, examines developments in the Maghreb and Morocco’s growing role in its regional environment. The document analyses in particular Rabat’s new diplomatic assertiveness and the tensions that may arise with certain European partners.

These publications do not constitute an official position of the Spanish government accusing Morocco of pursuing a specific strategy. They are analytical works produced במסגרת strategic studies linked to the Ministry of Defence. Their significance lies in showing how part of Spain’s military circles now interprets the migration issue within a broader national security framework.

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These analyses take on particular resonance after the recent tensions surrounding Ceuta. Spain notably reinforced its military deployment in the enclave by sending additional personnel from the Canary Islands, while Madrid continues to regard the border with Morocco as a major strategic issue.

Beyond the migration issue alone, these reports show that Spanish-Moroccan relations are now being studied by Spanish military experts through several interconnected dimensions: border control, diplomacy, military capabilities and the regional balance of power.