20,000 people in Ceuta and Melilla to make it impossible for Spain to respond militarily

The document was brought back to light on 16 September by SUR. It brings together papers presented during the XXXII International Defence Course, held in Jaca from 15 to 19 September 2025 by the General Military Academy and the University of Zaragoza.

In a chapter entitled “Morocco challenges our sovereignty: our African territories in constant danger,” Marina Arnau Segura and David Espinosa Pérez examine the possibility of a crisis around Ceuta and Melilla that would not take the form of a conventional military confrontation.

On Bladi.net : Ceuta: Spain prepares its scenarios in the face of a possible “migration weapon”

According to the scenario studied, Rabat’s interest would be to avoid an armed conflict and portray the situation as a “spontaneous and massive” arrival of migrants. In Spain, the parallel is now being drawn with the events of 30 and 31 July 2026, when 72,000 entries from Morocco were recorded.

An arrival intended to exceed Spain’s capabilities

The authors imagined a situation even more serious than the one experienced in Ceuta in May 2021. A prolonged arrival of people by land and sea could, in their view, cause a state of chaos and leave the Spanish authorities without sufficient police personnel to maintain order.

The scenario is based on the principle of a hybrid threat: using civilians, migratory pressure, information and diplomacy to achieve a political objective without directly deploying the armed forces. Such a configuration would greatly complicate any Spanish military response.

The chapter also revisits former Spanish agent Fernando San Agustín’s account of a project presented under the name “Morocco 2030.” It described 20,000 people entering Ceuta and Melilla simultaneously, by land and sea, in order to place Spain before a crisis that could not be handled as a conventional military attack.

On Bladi.net : The CNI had identified 2,000 people near Ceuta; 72,000 ultimately crossed the border

The work appears in a book published by the Spanish Ministry of Defence and devoted to communications from the International Defence Course. The General Military Academy confirms that the 2025 edition focused in particular on irregular immigration, instability in Africa and regions of particular interest to Spanish security, including the Maghreb.

This is a forward-looking study presented within an academic framework linked to Defence, rather than an operational intelligence-services note. Its reappearance nevertheless fuels debate in Spain over the warnings received before the July crisis and the response provided by the authorities.