Spain’s Military Readiness Under Scrutiny as Morocco Eyes Ceuta and Melilla

– byPrince · 2 min read
Spain's Military Readiness Under Scrutiny as Morocco Eyes Ceuta and Melilla

According to a study carried out by the commander of the Spanish army, Emilio José Arias Otero, and published by the Higher Center for National Defense Studies (Ceseden), Spain is not ready to effectively respond to the growing pressure exerted by Morocco to recover the enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla.

In this study, Airas Otero analyzes both the constant modernization of the Moroccan army and the hybrid strategies developed by the kingdom in recent years, stressing the need for Spain to prepare to face any possible attack from Morocco, which continues to claim the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla. "Morocco’s incessant defense spending should prompt the strengthening and increase of the Spanish armed forces," advises Arias Otero.

The senior Spanish army officer explains how Morocco has unrolled this strategy on different fronts: from the economy to diplomacy, through immigration, not forgetting the alleged espionage with the Israeli software Pegasus. Meanwhile, Spain continues to adopt a wait-and-see attitude, regrets the commander. "This lack of initiative leads Spain not to control the pace of the confrontation." Since 2000, the various Spanish security strategies have avoided directly mentioning Morocco’s claims on Ceuta and Melilla, recalls El Independiente.

For Arias Otero, this deliberate omission of Morocco’s annexationist intentions in these Spanish military strategy documents reflects a lack of determination by the authorities to defend these territories and "does not reinforce the exercise of deterrence." For its part, Morocco continues to modernize its army, with the acquisition of combat drones, frigates and advanced air defense systems from its partners such as the United States, France and Israel.

"Morocco’s better geographical position, the increase in its defense spending and the growth of its military capabilities could pose a dilemma if it managed to surpass Spain’s military capabilities," warns Otero, who also denounces Spain’s diplomatic incoherence towards Morocco, with changes in position, particularly on the Sahara, which he sees as a sign of weakness. "Yielding without demanding anything in return is dangerous."

The Spanish commander argues in the study that "the lack of explicit guarantees and historical experience suggest that Spain’s ability to deter Morocco is limited." To change the game, he calls for the implementation of an effective foreign and defense policy. "Making our adversaries perceive our firm determination to defend our interests at all costs is one of the cornerstones of deterrence," he emphasizes. In the meantime, Morocco will continue, according to the senior officer, to exert pressure on Spain, using all the means at its disposal, without going to a direct confrontation.