War with Morocco: Former Spanish military chief says he could “end it within 24 hours”

The statement was made by Francisco José Gan Pampols, a reserve lieutenant general and former director of the Intelligence Center of the Spanish Armed Forces. Interviewed by El Español, he asserts that Madrid has the means to paralyze Morocco in just 24 hours in the event of an offensive against Ceuta.

The former military chief describes a response without geographical limits. Spain would not merely repel the forces engaged around the enclave: it would directly strike Moroccan military and logistical capabilities. “Everything that flies will be shot down,” he says regarding the Moroccan air force, before reserving the same fate for Royal Navy vessels.

Ports, airports, communications networks and energy infrastructure could also be neutralized. Madrid would deploy its fighter aircraft, Taurus cruise missiles, artillery and naval assets to prevent Morocco from continuing operations.

For Gan Pampols, an invasion of Ceuta would amount to a declaration of war. Above all, he believes that this warning should be conveyed to Rabat “through the appropriate channels.” His statement does not represent the official position of the Spanish government, but it comes from a former official who headed military intelligence between 2013 and 2016.

The former general also believes that Moroccan preparations would be detected quickly. An offensive would require brigades, armored vehicles, ammunition, fuel and thousands of soldiers to be moved closer to the border. Such movements would be difficult to conceal from satellites, drones and Spanish intelligence services.

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Around 3 000 Spanish military personnel are stationed in Ceuta. They would form the first line of defense before reinforcements arrived from the peninsula. A large-scale operation would then mobilize the army, navy, air force, special forces and cyberspace command.

The bases at Rota and Morón would play a central role in transporting troops, ammunition and fuel. Control of the Strait of Gibraltar would also become essential to maintain maritime links and prevent Morocco from providing lasting support to its forces.

Spain remains ahead, but sees Morocco closing the gap

The three former military officials interviewed nevertheless consider a Moroccan attack extremely unlikely. Juan Rodríguez Garat, former fleet admiral, and Francisco José Dacoba, former director of the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies, agree with Gan Pampols on this point.

They all nevertheless believe that Spain would retain the advantage in a conventional war. Madrid has a larger air force, Eurofighter and F/A-18 fighters, a navy equipped with F-100 frigates and S-80 submarines, as well as a greater ability to coordinate aircraft, ships, radars and precision weapons.

Rodríguez Garat believes that the first battle would take place in the air and would turn in Spain’s favor. Losing control of the skies would then complicate any Moroccan attempt to reinforce or supply its units around Ceuta.

This confidence nevertheless conceals growing concern in Madrid. Dacoba acknowledges that Spain’s lead is narrowing as a result of Moroccan acquisitions. The Kingdom is strengthening its air force with new F-16s and its army with Abrams tanks and PULS rocket launchers, while Apache helicopter deliveries continue.

The Israeli air shield acquired by Morocco, particularly the Spyder systems, also complicates Spanish scenarios. It allows Rabat to better protect its airspace and certain strategic facilities against aircraft, drones and missiles.

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Spanish superiority remains more pronounced at sea. Spain has five F-100 frigates, is preparing to bring the F-110s into service and deploys submarines as well as the Juan Carlos I amphibious assault ship. Morocco possesses several modern frigates and corvettes, including one FREMM, but does not yet have a comparable submarine capability.

The war described by the former officers remains a very distant scenario. But the violence of the language used reveals how the debate is evolving in Spain. Faced with the accelerated modernization of the Moroccan army, some Spanish officials are no longer content to assert that their country remains militarily superior: they now consider it necessary to threaten Rabat with complete paralysis within 24 hours.