The verdict is in: here is the big favorite for the 2025 AFCON

Data science validates the hopes of an entire people. According to the thousands of simulations carried out by Opta’s supercomputer, Walid Regragui’s men are the best equipped to win this edition. They prevail in 19.1% of the analyzed scenarios, largely dominating the statistical debates.

Their probability of reaching the final is just as eloquent: nearly 30% (exactly 29.9%). An absolute favorite status that puts additional pressure on the host country, in search of a second star since 1976.

Behind the Moroccan juggernaut, resistance is organizing. Egypt, with its record of seven titles, comes in second with 12.4% chances of final victory. The software also predicts that if logic is respected in the group stage, the Lions and the Pharaohs will avoid each other until the later rounds.

Senegal completes the podium in a close finish (12.3%). The Lions of Teranga remain a safe bet, displaying the highest probability in the tournament to get out of the groups and reach the round of 16 (95.4%). Algeria follows closely in fourth place (12%), confirming a very dense top quartet.

The surprise comes from the bottom of the favorites’ table. Côte d’Ivoire, the defending champion, is subject to a real statistical downgrade. The Elephants only rank seventh with only 6.7% chances of retaining their title, outpaced by Nigeria and Tunisia.