2026 World Cup: the figures that smile on Morocco

The data analyst has delivered his verdict six months before the start of the competition in North America. At the very top of the hierarchy, Spain stands out as the bogeyman. The selection led by Luis de la Fuente, led by the talent of Lamine Yamal, has a 17% chance of winning a second world title. This high rate is explained by an impressive sporting dynamic, with La Roja remaining on a 31-game unbeaten streak in official matches, a pace superior to its golden period 2010-2013. It outpaces France (14.1%), which is aiming for a third star for Didier Deschamps’ last campaign, and England (11.8%).

In this tableau dominated by European and South American heavyweights, Morocco displays a rate of 1.1%. This figure places the Atlas Lions on a perfect par with Croatia, the 2018 finalist and third in 2022. Even more significantly, this projection places the Moroccan selection ahead of teams like Ecuador (1.0%), Japan (0.9%) or the United States (0.9%), one of the host countries.

Lionel Messi’s defending champion Argentina comes in fourth among the favorites with 8.7%, followed by Germany (7.1%) and Portugal (6.6%). At the bottom of the ranking, the hopes are slim for Haiti, credited with the lowest percentage (0.03%). However, these predictions are destined to evolve by the time of the opening match on June 11, depending on the playoffs and the form of the teams.