Tensions Persist Between Morocco and Algeria, Report Warns of Potential Conflict

In a report titled "The prospects for an improvement in relations between Morocco and Algeria are bleak", Oxford Analytica, a strategic consulting and analysis firm, states that "the tension between the two countries remains without signs of appeasement, although each of them seeks to avoid war. Morocco is cautious in the face of Algeria’s military capabilities, while Algeria looks with distrust at Morocco’s relations with France, the United States and Israel. Meanwhile, the two parties are trying to strengthen their influence in the Sahel and Europe by offering investments, security partnerships and closer diplomatic ties."

However, "Morocco and Algeria could move closer to an unintentional escalation in the Sahara, after the breakdown of the ceasefire agreement in November 2020," warns Oxford Analytica, stressing that "the calm between the two countries largely depends on the restraint of their leaders. This restraint is mainly motivated by fears of uncertain consequences, as neither camp can guarantee victory in a war that could destroy their national legitimacy and exacerbate internal instability."

Even if Algeria has an increasing defense budget compared to that of Morocco, the kingdom seems to have a definite advantage over its neighbor and rival, notes the report. "Rabat has two major assets: the regular purchase of American weapons and equipment, as well as its cooperation with Israel. This means that Morocco is modernizing its army faster than Algeria, particularly in the fields of electronic warfare, drones and air defense systems." Thus, "in the event of war, Morocco could obtain emergency support from the United States, Israel and France, while Algeria would continue to depend on Russia."

Regarding the relations between Rabat and Washington, the report states that "two scenarios are emerging regarding the future policy of the United States towards North Africa: the first is a withdrawal of Washington from a region considered of lesser strategic importance for its interests; the second is an open support for Morocco." For Oxford Analytica, "the probability of a direct conflict between the two countries remains low; however, certain factors could increase this risk in the years to come." The Institute also adds that the Polisario "fears that independence (of Western Sahara) is becoming an increasingly unlikely prospect, which could push it to intensify the conflict."