Morocco’s Fertility Rate Rises: Study Projects Continued Upward Trend

Conducted by Aziz Ajbilou and Karim El Aynaoui, this study on "The Recent Evolution of Fertility in Morocco: Change in Continuity" makes a short and medium-term projection of the fertility rate in Morocco in connection with the economic and social context, particularly the employability of women. "Using available data from censuses and surveys conducted by the High Commission for Planning (HCP), the Ministry of Health, and the National Observatory of Human Development (ONDH), this article aims to study the changes over time known by fertility in Morocco," it is noted.

After a stagnation noted since 2010, the fertility rate showed a slight recovery in 2019, mainly in cities where it reached 2.2 children per woman against 1.8 children per woman in 2010. In rural areas, fertility has, however, recorded a decline until 2014, with 2.5 children per woman, before rising to 2.7 children per woman in 2019. However, a decrease in the age at first marriage has been observed among educated or less educated women, both in urban and rural areas.

"What is surprising is that this recovery in fertility is happening in parallel with an expansion of schooling among girls. An expansion that is, however, hampered by the obstacles related to women’s access to economic activity outside the family sphere. This situation could be at the origin of the decrease in the age at first marriage and, consequently, the recovery observed in terms of fertility," explain the authors of the study.

The data from the next population and housing census scheduled for 2024, added to qualitative research on the procreative behavior of Moroccan women, could provide a clear idea of the fertility trends in Morocco. However, the current economic and social conditions of Moroccan couples do not seem favorable to high fertility. Thus, the average number of children per woman should be around 2.5 this year.