Morocco no longer has enough children, aging is accelerating

The figures from the High Commission for Planning (HCP) are clear: Morocco has definitively turned the page on its eternal youth. As of September 1, 2024, the country had 5.027 million people aged 60 and over. In just twenty years, this population category has more than doubled, increasing from 2.3 million in 2004 to more than 5 million today. The pace is accelerating dizzily: while the increase was 33% between 2004 and 2014, it has jumped by nearly 60% over the past decade. Now, seniors represent 13.8% of the total population, compared to only 7.2% in the aftermath of independence.

This structural transformation is accompanied by a worrying phenomenon: the contraction of the productive base. For the first time, the share of the working-age population (15-59 years) is declining, falling to 59.7%, while the reservoir of youth (under 15 years) continues to empty, representing only 26.5% of Moroccans. The pressure on the active population is becoming unsustainable: the dependency ratio, which measures the economic burden of retirees on workers, has exploded to reach 22.8% in 2024. A situation exacerbated by the feminization of old age, with women living longer but often finding themselves in more precarious situations.

The cause of this upheaval is now structural: Morocco no longer has enough children to renew its generations. The total fertility rate has fallen to 1.97 children per woman, falling below the critical replacement threshold (2.1). The decline in the age of marriage (32.4 years for men, 24.6 years for women), rapid urbanization, and the widespread use of contraception have transformed the Moroccan family model. Faced with this demographic transition that has happened faster than expected, the HCP warns: without a profound reform of social protection and intergenerational solidarity, the system risks collapse.