Morocco’s Hybrid Strategy Targets Spanish Enclaves Ceuta and Melilla, Experts Warn

According to a report published by the Ceuta and Melilla Observatory, and drawn up by political science professors from the universities of Barcelona, Granada and Seville, the measures taken by Morocco against Spain in recent years are part of a kind of "gray area", that is to say that they are ambiguous and produce medium and long-term effects. Morocco is carrying out these actions with the aim of taking Ceuta and Melilla, as well as the rest of the Spanish rocks and islands in the area and their territorial waters, the experts indicate.

"Rabat seeks to influence Spanish foreign policy by using the control of migration flows, counterterrorism cooperation or the renewal of fisheries agreements with the European Union as leverage," the experts note, according to whom these actions are part of what should be called a "peaceful competition" between the two countries.

Morocco has gradually evolved in its policy of pressure on the two autonomous cities. In the 2010s, the influx of migrants has increased significantly in Ceuta and Melilla and, although "the migratory pressure itself does not depend on the will of the Moroccan government", the experts point out that the kingdom has significant means to control migration flows thanks to the support of the EU.

In 2018, Rabat closed its customs office in Melilla in order to "promote the port of Nador", which had "serious consequences on the economy of Melilla". In 2019, Morocco closed the Tarajal border post, shortly after the commissioning of the Tanger Med port, thus ending the smuggling trade and "seriously damaging the economy of Ceuta". All these actions can be entered "in a hybrid strategy", warn the experts, alerting to a risk of intensification due to political crises.

In addition, the experts draw attention to the arms race that Morocco has been engaged in in recent years. The kingdom’s military budget is expected to reach $5.6 billion in 2022 compared to $4.8 billion in 2020, an increase of 29% compared to 2019 and 54% compared to 2011. "Even if Morocco does not envisage an armed action against the two enclaves, the regular strengthening of its army gives it a definite advantage in the event of a possible escalation of the gray area," explain the experts who call on the Spanish authorities to take urgent measures to "effectively defend Ceuta and Melilla".