Morocco in "great danger" if the Ormuz blockade persists

A disruption of less than two months would be enough to drive up inflation in emerging markets by up to 1 percentage point. This scenario would initially impact the Gulf countries, leading to a sharp slowdown in growth in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

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The economic situation would become critical beyond three months of closure. According to Allianz’s projections, Morocco would find itself in great danger of recession due to its structural vulnerability linked to a triple deficit: budgetary, current account and energy.

The kingdom is part of a group of countries particularly at risk from this supply shock, alongside Egypt, Tunisia or Pakistan. For these emerging markets, excluding China, the impact on GDP growth would reach an average decline of at least 0.5 percentage point.

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Faced with this instability, financial markets are already starting a targeted price correction. In order to counter the rise in energy-driven inflation, central banks should keep their interest rates higher for longer, thus delaying monetary easing cycles.