Morocco fears an oil shock worse than in 2022

The near-total blockage of oil traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, where 20 million barrels per day transit, is shaking global markets. More than 700 ships are currently immobilized following the intensification of military tensions involving Iran, Israel and the United States, jeopardizing a fifth of the world’s supply.

On Bladi.net: Tanger Med, the big winner of the US - Iran crisis? The port becomes the pivot of world trade

For Morocco, dependent on hydrocarbon imports, this situation weighs heavily on the financial balance. Crude oil prices have already risen from $60 to $72 per barrel, while the increase in logistics costs and marine insurance premiums is putting pressure on the domestic market.

Economist Mohamed Jadri, interviewed by Al3omk, warns that "the current tensions in the Middle East and the war between the United States, Israel and Iran will have a direct impact on the national economy". According to the expert, the mere threat of a production disruption is enough to fuel a price surge and a new wave of inflation.

The Kingdom now fears reliving the scenario of April 2022, marked by an energy bill of $15 billion. Such a surge in prices would impact all commodities, further weakening the purchasing power of Moroccan households already affected by the consequences of the pandemic.

On Bladi.net: Towards a new surge in fuel prices in Morocco?

The outcome of the crisis will depend on the duration of the hostilities. While a lightning war could allow for a rapid stabilization of prices, a prolonged war of attrition would make the crossing of the $100 threshold inevitable, imposing a financial burden that would be difficult to sustain for the national economy.