Oil at $160 a barrel? The dark scenario threatening Morocco

Morocco, which imports almost all of its energy needs, is on the front line of the escalation of global geopolitical tensions. In an analysis granted to the newspaper Alomk, expert Rachid Sari warns that this vulnerability will inevitably lead to the depletion of foreign exchange reserves and a general rise in domestic prices.

On Bladi.net: Morocco fears an oil shock worse than in 2022

The tipping point is the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery through which 20 million barrels of oil pass every day. A paralysis of this passage would force ships to circumnavigate Africa via the Cape of Good Hope, adding up to 10,000 kilometers to journeys and causing critical delivery delays for European and African markets.

This logistics crisis would cause maritime freight costs to jump by 30% to 50%, while insurance premiums would rise by a third. Rachid Essari stresses that "the discourse should not be limited only to oil and gas prices, but should include the cost of maritime transport, which will increase dizzily".

The analyst’s projections are alarming: crude oil could reach $160 a barrel, while natural gas prices would soar by 70%. Such a shock would directly impact the prices of cereals, metals and electronic components, threatening to durably clog global supply chains.

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Finally, the expert anticipates a severe macroeconomic impact with global inflation inflated by two to three points. This gloomy scenario, marked by direct threats to energy and food security, now imposes unprecedented financial and commercial challenges on Morocco.