Morocco Economic Vulnerability: Energy Dependence Risk 2026

In its analysis devoted to the consequences of the Middle East crisis and the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Coface emphasizes that the direct impact on African economies will be unequal. Not all countries on the continent are exposed in the same way to petroleum products. Some still consume little, due to a lack of a heavily industrialized productive apparatus.

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Morocco, however, falls into another category. Along with South Africa, Egypt and Nigeria, it is part of African economies where petroleum product consumption is most concentrated. In other words, its more developed economic structure also makes it more sensitive to rising energy prices, transport and inputs.

Strength with a downside

This reading nuances the image of a country simply better equipped than its neighbors. Morocco is not on the front line geographically of the conflict, but it remains exposed through its energy bill, imports, industrial needs and freight costs. A sustained rise in oil can quickly be transmitted to businesses, then to prices paid by households.

Coface also warns that the shock is not limited to energy. Tensions on inputs, fertilizer shortages and unfavorable weather conditions can fuel a new wave of food inflation in Africa. This situation should weigh on the continent’s growth in 2026 and 2027.

For Morocco, the risk lies less in an immediate downgrade of its rating than in its economy’s capacity to absorb an imported shock. Sectors dependent on transport, energy and raw materials could see their margins shrink, especially in a productive fabric largely composed of small businesses.

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Coface’s barometer thus recalls a reality often underestimated: the more an economy modernizes and industrializes, the more sensitive it becomes to global shocks. For Morocco, stability remains an asset, but energy dependence remains one of the major tests of the coming months.