Experts: War Unlikely Between Morocco and Algeria Despite Rising Tensions

Even if "the prevailing situation between Morocco and Algeria has deteriorated considerably, leading to the severance of their diplomatic relations in August 2021 and a worrying increase in tensions," "the hypothesis of a war" between the two neighboring countries "is unlikely," says the French Institute for International and Strategic Studies (IRIS) of Pascal Boniface in an analysis on international issues for the year 2023. And to note: "The structural blockages affecting the countries of the Maghreb prove to be radically counterproductive and do not seem to be on the way to being resolved."

To recall, Algeria broke off diplomatic relations with Morocco on August 24, 2021. Nearly a month later, on September 22, 2021, it closed its airspace to Moroccan civilian and military aircraft and those with a Moroccan registration number. The settlement of the conflict in the Sahara remains one of the points of friction between the two countries.