After an exceptional harvest, Morocco could lose 80 million kilos of olive oil

This forecast comes from Spanish olive-sector professionals consulted by OkDiario. According to them, Morocco would produce approximately 80 million fewer kilos of olive oil during the next campaign.

The figure remains provisional and does not come from an official Moroccan estimate. Nevertheless, it confirms the possibility of a reversal after the spectacular rebound in national production observed in 2025-2026.

The Spanish sector explains this development by the cyclical nature of the olive tree. After a particularly abundant year, trees generally produce less during the following campaign. Tunisia and Turkey are expected to experience the same phenomenon.

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Tunisia would thus fall from 512 to just 250 or 300 million kilos of oil. Turkish production, which exceeded 400 million kilos, would fall back below 300 million. These simultaneous declines would strengthen Spain’s position on the international market.

Spain, by contrast, expects to harvest between 200 and 400 million additional kilos. Its production could reach 1.5 to 1.7 billion kilos of olive oil in 2026-2027, compared with approximately 1.3 billion during the current campaign.

If these two forecasts are confirmed, Spain would produce up to 17 times more olive oil than Morocco. It would also be much less dependent on external supplies, after sharply increasing its purchases of Moroccan oil in 2026.

The decline in Morocco was already expected

This new estimate comes as no total surprise. Moroccan professionals had already announced a possible 40% decrease in the national olive harvest, or approximately 800,000 fewer tonnes of fruit compared with the record of two million tonnes recorded this season.

The two figures should nevertheless not be confused. The 100 million kilos announced by the Spanish sources correspond to the oil that would be produced after processing. The forecast of 1.2 million tonnes mentioned in Morocco concerns the olives harvested before they are taken to the oil mills.

The expected decline could reduce the volumes available for export, while European purchases of Moroccan oil have increased sharply. It does not, however, necessarily mean that prices will immediately soar in Morocco: stocks kept after the abundant 2025-2026 campaign could cushion part of the decline.

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The next harvest will still depend on weather conditions, the actual load of the trees and the yield of the olives during crushing. The 100 million kilos therefore constitute, at this stage, a forecast from industry professionals rather than a definitively secured volume.