Western Sahara Dispute Fuels Diplomatic Crisis Between Morocco and Spain

According to a report from the Spanish military intelligence, addressed in June 2018 to Pedro Sánchez upon taking office, Morocco attaches particular importance to the Sahara issue, "a territory it claims as a province and a matter it considers a casus belli". In other words, any opposition contrary to that of Morocco on this issue gives rise to reprisals from the latter, observes Challenge, recalling as an example the dispute between Germany and Morocco, which preceded the current one with Spain.

Download: Maghreb Security Scenario 2040

"The Sahara issue [...] is the Gordian knot of the 2040 Maghreb scenario. A frozen issue that prevents rapprochement between the two powers, Morocco and Algeria, and hinders the development of credible initiatives," analyzes Colonel Fernando Caballero Echevarría, author of this 20-page report entitled Maghreb Security Scenario 2040. The expert adds that the Sahara is an "issue for which there is no solution in sight for the next two decades".

Several analyzes have already warned of the risk of deterioration of relations between Morocco and Spain because of the latter’s position on the Sahara. According to OKDIARIO, another 2011 report from the Ministry of Defense indicated that "the risk to Ceuta and Melilla is permanent. If it is not properly managed at the political level, it risks degenerating into war and conflict".