War in Iran, El Niño: Morocco Threatened by New Food Crisis

The world is facing an unprecedented double upheaval that is weakening agricultural production. On one hand, the war in Iran is paralyzing gas and fertilizer exports from the Gulf, triggering a surge in prices for these inputs of 20 to 40 percent. On the other hand, the return of the El Niño weather phenomenon, synonymous with droughts and devastating floods, promises to severely disrupt future global harvests of wheat and corn.

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In this explosive global context, many countries find themselves on the front lines. According to a geopolitical analysis published by Lawfare, Morocco is among the nations most vulnerable to these food price shocks due to its heavy dependence on imports. The kingdom is identified as a genuine regional "bulwark of stability," a strategic position that risks being severely tested by this situation.

This emerging food insecurity is indeed reviving fears of large-scale political destabilization. Historically, sharp increases in commodity prices have proven to be a reliable recipe for triggering social unrest, as evidenced by poor harvests that partly triggered the Arab Spring. Importing states must confront these threats while budgets allocated by major powers to humanitarian aid are in sharp decline.

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To overcome this crisis in the long term, policymakers are called upon to rethink their agricultural models. It becomes imperative to invest in climate-resilient systems, optimize fertilizer use, and move away from fragile fossil fuels. Climate action is now essential as an "indispensable ingredient for sustainable global security," in order to protect populations against future shocks.