Soaring Oil Prices: Morocco Threatened by Inflation Wave

Morocco, heavily dependent on hydrocarbon imports, is facing a surge in fuel prices. After three increases in less than a month, the price of gasoline and diesel has crossed the 15 dirham mark per liter. This increase is explained by the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has pushed the barrel of oil to nearly 95 dollars recently, far from the 65 dollars budgeted by the State for 2026. Last year, the country devoted 7% of its GDP to energy spending alone.

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Moroccan businesses are directly feeling the weight of this crisis. The construction and real estate sectors are seeing their costs increase. Petroleum derivatives, such as locally manufactured plastic, are also becoming more expensive. "I’ve raised my prices," confirms a business executive from Casablanca in an analysis by Le Monde newspaper. Facing this inflationary threat, business leaders are calling on the State to temporarily reduce fuel taxes.

To limit social damage, the government has chosen to freeze prices for domestic gas bottles and electricity. This decision costs one billion dirhams per month and worsens the deficit of public operator ONEE. The State also provided 650 million dirhams in aid to transporters. Economy Minister Nadia Fettah Alaoui is stepping up interventions to reassure markets: "We are prepared for potential impacts on our economy, but we hope the crisis will be short."

Despite official rhetoric promoting ecological transition, the country remains extremely dependent on fossil fuels. Renewable energies represent only about 8% of final energy consumption, a figure that has stagnated for twenty years. For its part, the central bank has chosen to maintain its interest rate at 2.25%, while warning that the final economic impact will depend on the duration and intensity of this conflict.

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In this tense context, the OCP group, a global fertilizer giant, appears to be profiting from the situation. The company announced a production cut of up to 30% for the second quarter of 2026. While the official reason cites maintenance operations, a sector expert believes the real objective is to "preserve its margins." By temporarily reducing its supply while holding reserves, the company could trigger a mechanical increase in its selling prices.