Study Warns of High Tsunami Risk for Morocco and Spain in Next 30 Years

A 2021 study by the CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) states that Spain has almost a 100% chance of being hit by a tsunami in the next 30 years, and Morocco, located just across the Alboran Sea from Spain, is also under threat.

Although Europe is less exposed to submarine earthquakes, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission sounded the alarm in 2022: the probability of a tsunami of more than one meter in the Mediterranean in the next 30 years is close to 100%. These waves, classified at the highest level of severity, could cause a real disaster.

In Spain, the Averroes fault, located in the Alboran Sea, is the major source of concern. According to a CSIC study, this fault could generate a magnitude 7 tsunami, with six-meter waves reaching the Andalusian coast, Melilla and northern Morocco in just thirty minutes. Morocco would therefore be directly impacted, particularly the Rif region.

"These are episodes that are too rapid for the current early warning systems to work effectively. When an earthquake occurs in the Pacific or Atlantic, even with waves reaching twenty or thirty meters, there is an evacuation time between the moment the detection systems alert and the arrival of the tsunami on the coast. In the Alboran Sea, given that it is a small and narrow area, this time would not exist," explains Ferran Estrada, a researcher at the CSIC, to La Razón.

Spain has experienced tsunamis in the past. In 1755, an earthquake off the coast of Lisbon caused a tsunami with fifteen-meter waves, devastating Cadiz, Huelva and the Canary Islands. If such an event were to occur again today, Morocco could also be affected.