Spanish Intelligence Misjudged Algerian Migration Impact After Sahara Policy Shift

Spain’s change of position on the Sahara has ended the long crisis with Morocco, but has opened a new one with Algeria. In early June, the Algerian authorities suspended the treaty of friendship, cooperation and good neighborliness with Spain, effectively blocking trade exchanges between the two countries. In a report sent to the Spanish government, the National Intelligence Center (CNI) alerted of the massive arrival of migrants (around 10,000) from Algeria to the Spanish coasts of Almería, Murcia, Alicante and the Balearic Islands (mainly Ibiza and Formentera).

In the days following the rupture of the Algeria-Spain friendship treaty, more than 300 Algerian and Syrian migrants arrived from Algeria in Almería, Murcia and the Balearic Islands. Several deputies of the Popular Party (PP) in Congress addressed parliamentary questions to the government on this CNI alert. The parliamentarians wanted to know if the resources deployed in these provinces and islands were sufficient to cope with the migratory flows from Algeria, and if the government had planned response plans in the event of a massive arrival of migrants from the Algerian coasts.

In its written responses dated September 23, to which El Confidencial Digital had access, the Spanish government specified that between January 1 and September 7, 3,831 migrants arrived by sea in Formentera, Ibiza, Murcia and Almería (excluding Alicante) against 6,001 in the same period of 2021, a decrease of 36% (2,170 fewer migrants). By province, 2,237 migrants arrived in Almeria against 3,859 in 2021, 1,372 against 1,915 last year in Murcia, 225 against 222 in Ibiza and 2 against 0 in Formentera.

In a previous response dated August 17, the government indicated that 23,197 migrants arrived by sea and 5,532 by land from January 1 to date, i.e. 19.3% less than in the same period last year. Maritime arrivals to the peninsula and the Balearic Islands also fell by 36.2%, from 13,320 to 8,497. These national data take into account not only migrants from Algeria, but also from the northern Moroccan coasts towards Granada, Malaga, Cadiz and Huelva.