“Spain will leave Ceuta and Melilla” and should “start preparing for it”

Santiago Niño Becerra, professor emeritus of economic structure at Ramon Llull University in Barcelona, developed this prediction in several messages published on X.

“The question is not whether Morocco will invade Ceuta and Melilla, nor how their defense should be organized, but when Spain will leave Ceuta and Melilla,” he wrote, according to La Razón.

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The economist recalls that, since its independence in 1956, Morocco has gradually regained several territories formerly administered by Spain. He notably cites Sidi Ifni and the Sahara, which also had the status of Spanish provinces before Madrid’s withdrawal.

Morocco’s strategic role with the United States

For Santiago Niño Becerra, the situation in 2026 bears no resemblance to that of 1986. He believes that Morocco now occupies a much more important place in the United States’ strategy, which would profoundly alter the balance of power surrounding the two cities.

According to him, Madrid’s willingness and the costs Spain would be prepared to bear would no longer be enough to guarantee the continuation of its presence. “Spain will leave Ceuta and Melilla because we have reached a situation in which it is no longer up to it to decide whether it can stay or not,” he asserts.

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The economist goes so far as to advise the Spanish authorities to anticipate this scenario: “I think that Spain, if it is not already doing so, should start preparing for it.”