Morocco is gradually advancing its interests vis-à-vis Spain by combining immigration, the economy, energy and territorial claims, without crossing the threshold of open conflict. This is the analysis of Samuel Morales, a Spanish lieutenant colonel specializing in so-called “grey zone” strategies.
Moroccan olive oil production could fall back to 100 million kilos during the 2026-2027 campaign, compared with 180 million this season. A 44% decline that would abruptly end the rebound recorded after several years of drought.
Ahmed Toufiq mentioned Ceuta before Mohammed VI before recalling the use of a Sufi work in the mobilization of Moroccans to “liberate the occupied territories.” Amid heightened tensions with Spain, this sequence has drawn attention, without constituting an official claim.
In Madrid, the government describes Morocco as a “reliable and loyal” neighbour. In the Canary Islands, a regional official says exactly the opposite and accuses Rabat of playing with “marked cards”. Two opposing Spanish messages, delivered on the same day.
Pedro Sánchez is convening an extraordinary meeting of the National Security Council on Tuesday devoted to Ceuta. The Defence, Interior and Foreign Affairs ministries, intelligence services and the chief of the armed forces will meet after the migration crisis originating in Morocco at the end of July.
Despite tensions surrounding Ceuta, Morocco and Spain have never been so closely linked economically. Trade, automotive, textiles, tourism and energy now form an interconnected web of interests that a prolonged crisis would make both countries pay for.
Couhaib Driouech’s transfer to the Glasgow Rangers had collapsed because of an injury deemed concerning by Scottish doctors. Nine days later, PSV Eindhoven have reached a new agreement for the Moroccan winger, who is expected at Celta Vigo.
At a time when tensions over Ceuta are weakening bilateral relations, energy figures reveal a less visible dependence: in 2025, Spain supplied the equivalent of 8 % of Morocco’s electricity demand, as well as nearly a quarter of its imports of petroleum products.
Spain spent nearly 58 million euros purchasing Moroccan olive oil in the first half of 2026, compared with just 641,000 euros a year earlier. A spectacular surge in a country that nevertheless comfortably dominates global production.
In the province of Barcelona, Moroccans are now the largest nationality among foreign homebuyers in Vilafranca del Penedès. They have claimed this position in a city where prices have risen by nearly 31% in one year.
The president of UD Las Palmas, Miguel Ángel Ramírez, launched a verbal attack against Morocco before a match in Ceuta. The club executive asserted the Canaries’ Spanish identity and promised to mobilize his club if it were challenged.
Several studies published within Spain’s Ministry of Defence environment analyse migration flows as a possible instrument of pressure in relations between states. Three works devoted to Morocco, hybrid threats and Spanish strategy place migration crises at the heart of Madrid’s security considerations.