Sahara Dispute Fuels Diplomatic Rift Between Morocco and Algeria

The conflict in the Sahara crystallizes the tensions between Morocco and Algeria. This former Spanish colony is a major source of discord between the two countries. While the independence movement, supported by Algeria, has been defending the Sahrawi people’s right to self-determination since 1976, Morocco, for its part, is proposing an autonomy plan for this territory, which it considers under its sovereignty, reports Atlantico.

On the Sahara issue, new factors could contribute to the exacerbation of tensions between Morocco and Algeria. First, the arms race in which the two countries are engaged. In 2022, Algeria and Morocco accounted for 74% of North Africa’s military spending, according to figures from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Since 2005, Morocco has doubled its military budget, mainly devoted to the purchase of high-tech weapons and drones from the United States and Israel, its privileged allies, but also from Turkey and China. Some of these drones have already been used against the Polisario.

Next, the Algerian diplomatic strategy to get other countries to adhere to the Sahrawi cause. The country should take advantage of its mandate as a temporary member of the UN Security Council in 2024 to bring the Sahara issue back to the agenda. Algeria could also take advantage of its position as a potential gas supplier to Europe after the Russian-Ukrainian crisis to convince certain European countries to support the Polisario.

For its part, Morocco continues to put pressure on other countries like France to recognize its sovereignty over the Sahara. After the United States in December 2020, in exchange for the signing of the Abraham Accords, Germany, Spain and recently Israel have officially recognized the "Moroccanness" of the Sahara. To date, more than twenty countries in Africa and the Middle East have already opened diplomatic representations in the Moroccan Sahara, tacitly recognizing Morocco’s sovereignty over this territory. Nevertheless, an intensification of clashes in the Sahara is not excluded.