National Rally’s Rise Could Shift France’s Stance on Western Sahara

The rise of the National Rally is reshuffling the cards of French politics and is putting Emmanuel Macron’s "Renaissance" in difficulty. The latter had to dissolve the National Assembly. This event disrupts the agenda of the French president and his Prime Minister Gabriel Attal. Their trip to Morocco is no longer a priority. "After the consultations of the legislative elections of June 30 and July 7 next, the main priority of President Emmanuel Macron will be to prepare to manage a cohabitation," estimates Emmanuel Dupuy with Médias24.

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Victorious in the European elections, the RN is heading towards a new feat in the legislative elections. "There is no reason why this opposition party, which has become the leading political force in France, will not find a sufficient number of deputies to form a coalition capable of governing," predicts the president of the IPSE. According to him, the arrival of the RN at Matignon "could lead to the recognition of the Moroccanness of the Sahara". "Conversely, the RN’s Maghreb policy will be much more pro-Moroccan than the current Macron government, like the RN European deputy, Thierry Mariani, considered a possible Minister of Foreign Affairs, who has always advocated an immediate unblocking of the issue of recognition of the Moroccanness of the Sahara," analyzes Emmanuel Dupuy.

Even if the French recognition of the Moroccanness of the Sahara falls within the constitutional prerogatives of the French president, it is not excluded that the cohabitation government that could be set up after the legislative elections will give itself this freedom. The attitude of Prime Minister Édouard Balladur towards President Jacques Chirac during the genocide in Rwanda in 1994 is the perfect illustration of this. The president of the IPSE still affirms: "If you expect a French government to recognize the Moroccanness of the Sahara, it will be immediate if Marine Le Pen comes to power".