Morocco growth slowdown 2026 dirham currency crisis

Instability in the Middle East and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are weighing heavily on the Moroccan economy. The African Development Bank (AfDB) anticipates a sharp slowdown in growth, falling from 4.7% in 2025 to 4.2% this year. This deceleration is explained by a surge in fertilizer prices and energy bills, a situation directly worsened by the dirham’s depreciation.

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As a logical consequence of these costly imports, the current account deficit will widen to reach 3.5% of GDP. Public finances are also under pressure, with a budget deficit expected at 3.7% due to increased wage bills and financial efforts deployed by the State to protect Moroccans’ purchasing power.

Facing this unfavorable situation, the Kingdom relies on effective buffers. Unlike Egypt or Nigeria which face double-digit inflation rates, Morocco keeps its inflation below 2.4% in 2026 thanks to its targeted subsidies and the prudence of its monetary policy. Household consumption and infrastructure investment remain powerful engines, supported by tourism, industry and agriculture.

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Experts particularly praise the transparent management of internal debt and the success of the Tamwilcom institution, established as a continental model for guaranteeing loans to SMEs. The national financial market must however address certain structural gaps to attract massive financing, like a Stock Exchange restricted to only 77 listed companies and the overwhelming dominance of the traditional banking sector.