Morocco Economy Resilience Oil Prices Growth 2026

The global economy is navigating a zone of intense geopolitical turbulence, hitting energy markets head-on. Before the House of Advisors this Tuesday, May 12, Fouzi Lekjaâ detailed this price surge: a barrel of oil climbing to 102 dollars on average over the first four months of the year, and diesel jumping by 70%. Butane, fuel oil, and natural gas are experiencing the same dizzying inflation. For the minister delegate in charge of the budget, these figures stem from "an objective reading of the conditions Morocco is experiencing just like the rest of the world."

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This international disruption clouds overall forecasts. The International Monetary Fund has indeed lowered global growth to 3.1%, anticipating inflation at 4.4% and a sharp slowdown in trade. Facing this storm, the kingdom nonetheless stands as an exception. The government official praised "the robustness of the national economy and public finances," assuring that the country manages to maintain the economic momentum of recent years.

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This optimism rests on two solid pillars. On one hand, foreign exchange reserves surged 23.4% year-on-year to reach 469.8 billion dirhams by end of April, guaranteeing the country the equivalent of nearly six months of imports. On the other hand, abundant rainfall promises a strong cereal harvest valued at 90 million quintals. Knowing that each additional 20 million quintals generates nearly 0.3% in added value, this agricultural vitality allows the government to maintain a growth trajectory exceeding 5.3% for the current year.