Morocco Faces Potential Surge: Up to 500,000 COVID-19 Cases Projected by Year’s End

These projections forecast a cumulative total of 300,000 to 500,000 cases recorded by December 31, 2020. The uncertainty of the forecast of the number of infection cases increases as the time horizon is long, implying wider estimation intervals, it is indicated. As for the fatality rate, it should rise to 1.9% in view of vulnerability trends, thus predicting a critical but still "bearable" epidemic situation for the health system.

At the regional level, four major groups are identified, namely the Greater Casablanca-Settat, the epicenter of Covid-19 in Morocco. With the resurgence of new cases, the daily report could reach 2,000 cases per day by the end of December. The second major group includes the Rabat-Salé-Kénitra region, less impacted by the coronavirus with a cumulative forecast of 59,037 by the end of December. Marrakech-Safi in the same group could experience a wave of contamination at any time, with the consequence of maintaining partial containment measures.

In group 3 with Fez-Meknes, Tangier-Tetouan, a much more stable situation is announced with the possibility of "extinction" when self-protection measures and compliance with barrier gestures are respected. The cumulative number of cases should reach up to 20,672 cases by the end of December in the Fez-Meknes region.

As for the 4th major group, the number of cases recorded up to September 20 is manageable provided that preventive measures are respected. It is not excluded that new clusters will lead to a wave of contamination, particularly in the event of non-compliance with self-protection measures. To avoid a new wave of contamination, the HCP recommends preventive measures. In the event of occurrence, the institution rather proposes a generalized but intermittent confinement in order to cushion the trend of new infections.