Morocco-Algeria: “Neither wants war, but both are preparing for the worst”

Middle East Institute researcher Intissar Fakir described a “security dilemma” in November 2025: each country’s military buildup pushes the other to increase its own capabilities in turn. Nine months later, several developments are moving in that direction.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) now believes that Algeria may have gained a technological advantage with the reported appearance of its first Su-57 fighter jets. Their entry into service would make Algiers the first African operator of a fifth-generation fighter.

In response to the Algerian program, Morocco began discussions with the United States as early as 2021 regarding a possible acquisition of the F-35. But five years later, the IISS observes that there has been “little concrete progress” on this issue.

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The rivalry extends far beyond fighter jets. Algiers continues to rely primarily on Russian equipment while strengthening its purchases from China. Rabat favors American and Western systems and is simultaneously expanding its cooperation with Israel, as well as its own defense industry.

This competition is absorbing considerable sums. In 2025, Morocco and Algeria spent a combined 33 billion dollars on defense, representing 88% of measurable military expenditure across North Africa, according to the IISS.

The gap remains enormous: Algeria spent 25.5 billion dollars in 2025, compared with 7.51 billion for Morocco.

The arms race could nevertheless change pace

A first shift is emerging in 2026. Algeria’s military budget is expected to fall to 24.5 billion dollars, a decrease of around 10% once inflation is taken into account. Morocco’s, by contrast, is rising to a record level of 7.87 billion.

Algeria still devoted 8.9% of its GDP to defense in 2025, compared with historically around 4% for Morocco. But the IISS doubts Algiers’ ability to sustain such an effort over the long term, particularly because of its dependence on hydrocarbons and its public deficits.

Morocco, by contrast, has a more diversified economy that could allow it to continue gradually increasing its military spending. The institute therefore believes that the financial gap between the two armies could begin to narrow.

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This does not, however, mean a thaw. On the contrary, the IISS considers that the simultaneous continuation of modernization programs, while diplomatic relations remain poor, risks deepening the “security dilemma” between Rabat and Algiers.

This is precisely the scenario Intissar Fakir described in November 2025 in her analysis for the Middle East Institute. In her view, reducing the risk would require not only a political settlement regarding the Sahara, but also confidence-building measures and arms-control mechanisms.

For now, the two countries continue to modernize their forces according to two opposing models: Russian and Chinese on the Algerian side, and mainly American and Western on the Moroccan side. The IISS also describes this rivalry as an indirect confrontation between two competing military ecosystems on NATO’s southern doorstep.