Morocco’s rearmament is beginning to change the balance of power with Algeria

This is the conclusion of an analysis published on August 20 by RANE, an American company specializing in geopolitical intelligence. According to the analysis, Morocco should narrow some of its conventional and technological gaps with Algeria, even though the Royal Armed Forces will remain smaller than the Algerian army.

Algiers’ financial advantage remains considerable. RANE estimates its defense budget at approximately 24.5 billion dollars in 2026, compared with nearly 7.9 billion for Morocco. But the American analysts believe that comparing spending alone is no longer sufficient.

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Rabat is relying more heavily on advanced equipment, diversifying its suppliers and developing a national military industry. RANE notably cites the establishment near Casablanca of a production facility for BlueBird Aero Systems, which specializes in drones.

Algeria will have to pay more to maintain its lead

This buildup is expected to place increasing pressure on Algiers. As Morocco narrows certain technological and conventional gaps, Algeria could be forced to further increase its military effort to maintain its advantage.

Yet its financial room for maneuver is shrinking. RANE notes that, taking inflation into account, Algeria’s defense budget will decline by approximately 10% in 2026 compared with 2025, despite remaining far higher than Morocco’s.

The kingdom is simultaneously continuing to modernize its forces and diversify its suppliers, from the United States and Israel to Turkey, China and India.

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RANE does not foresee a complete reversal of the balance of power: Algeria is expected to retain a larger army and greater financial resources. But Algeria’s lead could become more costly to preserve. By investing in technology and local production, Morocco is gradually forcing its neighbor to spend more simply to remain ahead.