Su-57 versus F-35: Algeria may have gained an edge over Morocco

This is the conclusion reached by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in an analysis devoted to the military rivalry between the two neighbors. The institute believes Algeria “may have gained a technological advantage in recent months” following reports of the presence in the country of the first Sukhoi Su-57 Felon stealth fighters.

If their entry into service is confirmed, Algeria would become the first African country to operate a fifth-generation fighter aircraft, the IISS notes.

Algiers specifically chose the Su-57 as part of the accelerated modernization of its military aviation. The country still relies heavily on Russian equipment, even though China now occupies an increasingly important position among its suppliers.

On Bladi.net : Algeria’s Stealth Gambit: Su-57 Acquisition Reshapes North African Skies

In response to this development, Morocco had turned to the United States. According to the IISS, information about Algeria’s plan to acquire the Su-57 had prompted Rabat to open discussions with Washington as early as 2021 about a possible purchase of F-35s.

Five years later, the British institute’s assessment is much less advanced than some information published in recent months has suggested: there has been “little concrete progress” in the negotiations.

Morocco seeks a solution while waiting for the F-35

The F-35 would represent a major technological leap for the Royal Air Force, but its acquisition therefore remains hypothetical at this stage, according to the IISS. At the same time, Rabat continues to modernize its capabilities with American and Western equipment.

Morocco had also concluded an agreement in 2024 to acquire 30 second-hand Mirage 2000-9s from the United Arab Emirates. This operation was intended to serve as an interim solution while awaiting new capabilities, but Abu Dhabi delayed the transfer after the outbreak of the war between the United States and Iran, the institute specifies.

This assessment by the IISS contrasts with other recent analyses that still granted Morocco a strategic advantage thanks to its modernized F-16s over Algeria’s Su-57s.

On Bladi.net : Morocco Rafale Fighter Deal Algeria Military Balance

Algeria’s lead is not guaranteed in the long term, however. The purchase of the Su-57 exposes Algiers to a possible American response under the CAATSA law, which allows Washington to sanction countries carrying out major transactions with the Russian defense sector.

Above all, Algeria is beginning to face budgetary constraints. Its military spending is expected to fall to 24.5 billion dollars in 2026, representing a decline of around 10% in real terms after inflation. Morocco, for its part, is planning a record budget of approximately 7.87 billion dollars.

Algeria therefore retains a considerable budgetary lead, but the IISS believes that the economic situation could gradually work in Morocco’s favor. Rabat could continue to steadily increase its military spending, while Algiers may face greater difficulty maintaining its current level of effort.

In the air, the immediate advantage could therefore belong to Algeria with the Su-57. But the competition is far from over: Morocco’s response will depend in particular on the outcome of its discussions with Washington over the F-35 and on the other choices Rabat makes to renew its fighter fleet.