Coronavirus Threatens to Intensify Social Risks in Morocco and Africa, Report Warns

The intensification of the high systemic social risk in Morocco and other African countries could be justified by "very weak health care combined with currently low commodity prices, which reduces governments’ ability to respond with fiscal stimulus measures to the crisis," the Euler Hermès report signed with insurer Allianz states.

Euler Hermès thus predicts social unrest across the continent in the second half of 2020 to 2021. In its African ranking, Mauritius occupies the 52nd place, and is the only country with an index of just over 50 in the region. This country is the most stable with 51 points, while Nigeria is the least stable (19.8 points). With 37.6 points, Morocco is among the less stable countries behind Egypt (47 points), Tunisia (46 points) and Algeria (41.8).

"The Covid-19 epidemic has, in our opinion, increased social inequalities in Africa. [...] The financial impact is very negative for many households and businesses around the world, which could lead to a new wave of social discontent. We can therefore fear a significant strengthening of the social risk in many countries this year," analyzes Ana Boata, director of macroeconomic research at Euler Hermes.

In the Middle East, some countries have a very high systemic social risk, such as Iran (28.7), while others appear less exposed, such as Qatar (66.9), the report points out.