WMO Forecasts Above-Average Temperatures for Morocco in Coming Months

In its seasonal forecasts, published on Monday, March 2, 2020, the WMO indicates that the probability that conditions will remain neutral with respect to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, for the period from March to May 2020, is 60%, while the probability of the occurrence of an El Niño episode is 35%, and that of a La Niña episode, 5%.

The probability of a continuation of neutral conditions, for the period from June to August 2020, is 55%, while that of an El Niño or La Niña episode rises to 20-25%. ENSO, a natural phenomenon characterized by fluctuations in the surface temperature of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, associated with variations in atmospheric circulation, has a major influence on weather and climate conditions. This phenomenon is linked to hazards such as heavy rains, floods and droughts. In general, El Niño tends to raise global temperatures, while La Niña produces the opposite effect.

"Even the months during which ENSO conditions are ’neutral’ are warmer than in the past, because air temperature, ocean surface temperature and ocean heat content have increased due to climate change. As the oceans absorb more than 90% of the energy trapped by greenhouse gases, their heat content has set new records," says WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.