Trump’s Potential Return Raises Concerns for Morocco-Algeria Relations

"Mutual restraint and US pressure have helped contain tensions between the two countries, but an escalation of pressures could undermine the status quo," the ICG notes in its latest report dated November 29, fearing, however, that the change of US administration - the return to the White House of President Donald Trump - could transform the tensions between Morocco and Algeria into an open conflict. The former and - soon to be new - president had formalized the US recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over the Sahara in exchange for the normalization of diplomatic relations between the kingdom and Israel, much to the displeasure of Algeria and the Polisario. His successor had chosen the tightrope walker.

"Rather than fighting this legacy [which would have strained relations with Morocco and Israel], the Biden administration has carefully realigned Washington’s position to avoid any reference to Moroccan sovereignty," the report continues, recalling that, so far, "Washington has not kept Trump’s promise to open a US consulate in Dakhla." The ICG also notes that the Biden administration has, in its language, also abandoned the reference to the autonomy plan as the "only basis" for resolving the conflict, describing it rather as a "potential approach" to settle the dispute.

The Biden administration has also worked to appoint the new UN envoy for Western Sahara, Staffan de Mistura, in office since November 2021. "After contributing to his appointment, Washington has sought to renew its engagement with Algeria and Morocco in an attempt to contain the growing bilateral tensions. [...] This exercise of ambiguity seems aimed at appeasing Algeria and the Polisario, but without provoking the anger of Morocco by reversing Trump’s action," the report also notes. In addition, "Washington has avoided defining the terms of new talks, leaving this task to the UN envoy. The calculation seemed to be that the resumption of negotiations would be an inexpensive way to manage tensions between Morocco, the Polisario and Algeria."

While several incidents or attacks have occurred between the Royal Armed Forces (FAR) and the Polisario, the restraint of Algiers and Rabat and the pressures of Washington "seem to have avoided the worst," the ICG points out. The question remains whether these "openings" and attempts to urge restraint will survive Trump’s return to power. "The next administration could again play a disruptive role, even if it is unclear what plans (if any) Trump’s team has for North Africa. If it chooses to more openly