Tensions Escalate Between Algeria and Morocco Over Western Sahara Dispute

The situation has worsened in 2020, when the Polisario Front broke the ceasefire in force since 1991, relaunching hostilities with Morocco, recalls, in a long report, Crisis Group. This event marked a turning point in the conflict, transforming a cold war into a low-intensity armed confrontation. Algeria, accused by Rabat of supporting the Polisario Front, thus finds itself at the center of a complex diplomatic game where the geopolitical stakes go far beyond the regional framework.

Adding fuel to the fire, the rapprochement between Morocco and Israel, sealed by the normalization of their diplomatic relations in 2020, provoked a strong reaction from Algeria. Perceived as an unnatural alliance by Algiers, this agreement has reinforced the feeling of being surrounded and fueled distrust of Rabat’s intentions. The growing military cooperation between Morocco and Israel, notably with the signing of an unprecedented defense agreement, has only increased Algerian concerns.

Faced with this explosive situation, the two countries have engaged in a frantic arms race. Military spending has skyrocketed, with each camp seeking to acquire the most sophisticated equipment to deter the adversary and prepare for a possible confrontation. This military escalation, coupled with an intense online disinformation campaign, contributes to a permanent climate of tension where the slightest incident can set off a powder keg.

In this tense context, the international community is trying to play a mediating role. The United States, traditionally close to Morocco, is trying to maintain a dialogue with the two parties to avoid an uncontrollable escalation. Europe, caught between its economic ties with Morocco and its strategic relations with Algeria, calls for restraint and the resumption of negotiations under the aegis of the UN.

The future of Algerian-Moroccan relations therefore remains uncertain, concludes the report. The issue of Western Sahara, a true diplomatic Gordian knot, continues to poison bilateral relations. As long as this conflict does not find a solution acceptable to both parties, the threat of an armed confrontation will hang over the region. The stakes are high: the stability of the Maghreb, if not all of North Africa, is at stake.