Spain Wary of Potential US Shift on Ceuta and Melilla Amid Trump’s Possible Return

While Trump’s return to power has been welcomed by Morocco, which expects a lot from the new US president, notably that he will keep his promise to open a consulate in Dakhlan, in the Moroccan Sahara, and strengthen military cooperation, the Spanish military and security circles are concerned about the good understanding between Rabat and Washington, analyzes El Español. The latter fear that Trump will recognize Morocco’s sovereignty over Ceuta and Melilla, as he had recognized the Moroccanness of the Sahara at the end of his previous term in December 2020, noting that the two autonomous cities are not under the aegis of NATO.

Spanish security experts mention the possibility of a "new Green March with Trump’s support", noting that Trump’s statements envisaging taking Greenland and the Panama Canal are not reassuring. They also highlight the clear lack of sympathy displayed by the new US president towards Pedro Sanchez. In addition to describing Spain’s military spending as "very weak", Trump has threatened to impose "100% tariffs" on the Iberian peninsula and the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). The new US president has also not contacted Sanchez since his election.

On the other hand, the ties between Rabat and Washington have been strengthened since Trump recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over the Sahara in 2020. "This historic position, for which the Moroccan people will continue to be grateful to the US president, represents an important event and a turning point, and truly reflects the depth of the distinguished and historical bilateral ties, and promises broader prospects for the strategic partnership between the two countries, the scope of which continues to expand," said King Mohammed VI in his message of congratulations to Trump after his election.

Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has spoken by phone with Nasser Bourita, the Moroccan Minister of Foreign Affairs. Morocco has also issued a statement, stressing the "strategic Moroccan-American partnership". Economically, trade between the two countries has more than quadrupled. The free trade agreement signed in 2004 between the two countries "reflects a strong partnership that can serve as a catalyst for growth and economic inclusion in Africa," develops the American think tank The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

The Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General CQ Brown, and the Inspector General of the Royal Moroccan Armed Forces, General Mohammed Berrid, have recently reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening bilateral security cooperation in the Maghreb and Sahel regions. In addition, Morocco has gradually increased its military budget over the past decade. A large part of it has been used to purchase state-of-the-art weapons from its privileged partner. Morocco’s 2025 military budget is over 12 billion euros, up 7% from 2024.