Spain Shifts Stance on Western Sahara Amid Migration Concerns and Ukraine Crisis

The President of the Spanish Government, Pedro Sanchez, chose this particular context marked by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the global rise in hydrocarbon prices and the migration crisis in Central Europe and the Mediterranean, to make his decision to support the Moroccan plan for autonomy of the Sahara. The migration issue, which is at the center of the concerns of the Spanish authorities, has certainly weighed in the balance.

"The risks of deterioration of the socio-economic situation (wheat prices on the eve of Ramadan) and the foreseeable increase in migration pressure in the short term have pushed Spain to accelerate reconciliation with Rabat...", explains Laurence Thieux, professor of international relations at the Complutense University of Madrid, to La Razón, stressing that the two countries have reaffirmed, in their recent statements, their "determination to face common challenges together, in particular the management of migratory flows in the Mediterranean and the Atlantic".

To read: Spain Backs Morocco’s Sahara Plan, Boosting Joint Efforts on Migration Control

Spain fears finding itself alone in facing a influx of migrants in this Ukrainian crisis, when it has not finished managing the migration crisis that occurred in May in Ceuta and the repeated assaults of sub-Saharan migrants in Melilla over the past three months. On March 2 and 3, more than 4,000 migrants tried to enter Melilla and 900 managed to access Spanish territory, despite the security forces of Spain and Morocco.

According to data from the Ministry of the Interior, the migratory flow via the Canary Islands from the Moroccan coast increased by 134.8% in the first two months of 2022 compared to the same period last year (5,496 migrants compared to 2,341). Furthermore, nearly 75% of the migrants who arrived in Spain in the first half of 2021 were of Algerian origin. The Spanish authorities fear a possible increase in migration pressure from Algeria in the coming months, in addition to a disruption of gas supply.