Sahara: why does the return of Trump worry Spain?

Could Donald Trump put pressure on certain countries like Spain to get them to officially recognize Morocco’s sovereignty over the Sahara? According to experts, if Spain has finally expressed its support in March 2022 for the Moroccan autonomy plan for this territory, considered as "the most serious, credible and realistic basis" to resolve this conflict, it is largely due to Donald Trump who had shown the way by formalizing his recognition of the Moroccanness of the Sahara in December 2020, just a month before leaving the presidency.

At the time, Trump had supported that the autonomy plan presented by Morocco in 2007 "is the only basis for a just and lasting solution for peace and prosperity," recalls Europa Press. "Morocco recognized the United States in 1777. It is therefore fair for us to recognize its sovereignty over the Western Sahara," he had specified on Twitter, now X. The US president, then at the end of his term, had announced strong decisions to materialize this American recognition of the Moroccanness of the Sahara, including the opening of a consulate in Dakhla. A project that has not seen any development under the mandate of his successor, Joe Biden.

Now back in the White House, Donald Trump will likely resurrect this project, the realization of which could lead Morocco to "increase pressure on Spain to do similar things," analyzes Eduard Soler, professor of international relations at the Autonomous University of Barcelona, adding that the Iberian peninsula could for example open a branch of the Cervantes Institute in the kingdom where it already has six centers.

Laurence Thieux, professor of international relations at the University of Madrid, for her part believes that the Sahara issue will not be "a priority" for Trump during this term, estimating that the Republican will not do more than what he had announced: the opening of a consulate in Dakhla. On the other hand, the two experts believe that Trump’s arrival could lead to an escalation of tensions between Morocco and Algeria. They believe that "Algeria could feel a little threatened" and even "cornered" if Trump continues his initiative to reconcile the Arab countries with Israel within the framework of the Abraham Accords. But the two experts agree that Rabat and Algiers are not interested in a direct confrontation.