Record $9.5 Billion in Remittances Expected from Moroccans Abroad in 2021

"After a 4.9% increase in 2020, MRE transfers would show a significant increase of around 27.7% in 2021 to reach a record of 87 MMDH, before falling by 5% to 82.7 MMDH in 2022," Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) said in a statement released Wednesday at the end of the third quarterly meeting of its Board.

The Bank also notes a 22.6% increase in exports in 2021 and expects this trend to continue in 2022 with an acceleration of 5.9%, mainly driven by phosphate and derivatives sales and automotive manufacturing. Similarly, imports are expected to grow by 19.6% in 2021, mainly due to the expected increase in purchases of capital goods and consumer goods. They would then experience a slowdown to 4% in 2022.

To read: Moroccan Diaspora Remittances Surge 46% in 2021, Defying Expert Predictions

In addition, travel receipts maintain their downward trend and should fall by 8.6% to 33.3 MMDH in 2021 against 53.7% in 2020, BAM notes, hoping for a rebound to 60.7 MMDH in 2022 if restrictive measures were to be eased. As a result, the current account deficit should widen from 1.5% of GDP in 2020 to 2.5% in 2021, then to 1.4% in 2022.

As for foreign direct investment flows, they would experience an increase of around 3% of GDP in 2022, and official reserve assets should stand at 335 MMDH at the end of 2021 and 345.1 MMDH at the end of 2022, the equivalent of more than 7 months of goods and services imports. This, considering the expected external financing of the Treasury and the allocation of special drawing rights (SDRs) of 10.8 MMDH.