Oil at 90 dollars, diesel at 191: Morocco pays dearly for no longer refining

The surge is no longer coming solely from oil. This week, the gap between the price of crude and that of diesel exceeded 100 dollars per barrel. Reuters confirmed this exceptional phenomenon, reporting that the diesel refining margin crossed this threshold for the first time, reaching 102.20 dollars on the US market.

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Disruptions at refineries in the Middle East and Russia have reduced the supply of processed fuels. In July, global refining activity fell by nearly five million barrels per day compared with a year earlier. Crude can therefore ease without diesel following suit.

For Morocco, the situation is particularly sensitive. Since the Samir refinery shut down in 2015, the Kingdom has bought its refined fuels on the international market. It is therefore directly bearing the current surge in the cost of transforming oil.

A gap of 5 dirhams per liter

El Houssine El Yamani, secretary-general of the National Oil and Gas Union and president of the National Front for the Safeguarding of the Moroccan Refinery, puts a figure on this gap. According to the data provided, one liter of crude currently represents approximately 5.2 dirhams, compared with 10.2 dirhams for a liter of diesel purchased on the international market.

With annual diesel consumption close to seven billion liters, he estimates the annual gap between these two values at more than 35 billion dirhams.

However, this amount does not correspond to a loss that Morocco would automatically recover by reopening a refinery. Refining itself has a cost, and one barrel of crude produces several fuels and derivatives. El Yamani’s calculation mainly measures the exceptional scale of the current gap between crude and the finished product.

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El Yamani believes that this crisis strengthens the case for resuming refining in Mohammedia. While refinery margins are reaching historic levels, the shutdown of Samir directly exposes Morocco to the high price of already processed fuels.