Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline: A Report Deems the Project "Useless" and Unprofitable for 288 Years

The study questions the economic viability of the infrastructure, described as a "white elephant". While the initial cost is estimated at $25 billion, experts anticipate a final bill that could climb up to $38 billion. Based on comparisons with the Medgaz gas pipeline, the firm calculates that the return on investment would take 288 years.

Moreover, the actual export capacity to Europe seems compromised by the decline in Nigerian production and the withdrawals made by the eleven countries crossed. Of the 30 billion cubic meters planned annually, only 12 billion could ultimately be available for export, once the consumption of the transit states and Morocco’s own needs are deducted.

A political project to establish sovereignty over the Sahara

While economic profitability appears doubtful, Rabat’s interest would lie elsewhere. Geoff Porter, the author of the report, analyzes this initiative as a political lever aimed at establishing the Kingdom’s sovereignty over Western Sahara, notably through the integration of Dakhla as an energy hub. This project is also part of a diplomatic confrontation logic with Algeria, which defends its own trans-Saharan gas pipeline.

Although the Algerian option is considered technically more realistic as it is land-based and shorter, Morocco is betting on an effective communication strategy. By presenting its gas pipeline as a vector of regional stability and a barrier to illegal immigration, Rabat hopes to attract European funding, where Algiers is counting on its own funds for a project it does not present as a miracle solution for development.