Netherlands vs Morocco: upset odds and World Cup predictions

According to Opta’s supercomputer, the Netherlands approach this match with 47.6% chance of qualification, compared to 25% for Morocco. A draw after 90 minutes is estimated at 27.4%, a figure that confirms this matchup promises to be more open than the Dutch favorite status suggests.

On Bladi.net : Netherlands Weaknesses Exposed: Morocco’s Round of 16 Chance

Morocco arrives above all with arguments. The Atlas Lions finished second in their group after a draw against Brazil (1-1), then two victories against Scotland (1-0) and Haiti (4-2). A solid campaign that confirms the position taken by the Moroccan team on the world stage since their historic run in 2022.

A favorite accustomed to high-stakes matches

The Netherlands remain a reference in knockout matches. Since 2010, the Oranje have passed the test in seven of their last ten knockout matches in the World Cup. But Opta also notes an important detail: three of their last five knockout matches went to a penalty shootout.

This parameter can matter against a Morocco accustomed to major tournaments. The Atlas Lions have already proven they can resist top European teams, such as when they won the quarterfinal against Portugal in 2022. This time they will aim for another prestigious victory against a nation that has never lost to an African team in the World Cup.

The Dutch remain dangerous. They scored 10 goals in three matches, as many as Germany and France at this stage of the competition. But their efficiency is also questionable: these 10 goals came from only 5.24 expected goals. In other words, the Oranje converted extremely well. Morocco must therefore avoid giving them easy chances.

On Bladi.net : Netherlands weakness Morocco can exploit Round of 16

For the Atlas Lions, the stakes are clear: survive the Dutch attacking phases, stay in the match as long as possible and exploit the spaces. Opta gives the Netherlands as favorites, but its figures also say something else: Morocco has a real window to create a surprise.