Netherlands Weaknesses Exposed: Morocco’s Round of 16 Chance

On paper, the Netherlands have all the hallmarks of an opponent to avoid. After a draw against Japan (2-2), the Oranje demolished Sweden (5-1), with a highly effective attack. Cody Gakpo finished with two goals and the best possible Opta rating, 10/10. Brian Brobbey also scored twice, while Crysencio Summerville added another goal. Five goals, multiple scorers, real offensive variety: the message sent to the rest of Group F is clear.

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But the score against Sweden also hides an important statistic. In this 5-1 victory, Dutch goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen finished as his team’s second-best player according to Opta, with a rating of 9.08. Most importantly, he made seven saves. That’s the figure that changes how we read the match. When a goalkeeper ranks that high in ratings during such a large victory, it means the team also conceded clear chances. Sweden was heavily beaten, but they found spaces and forced the Netherlands to defend.

The match against Japan confirms this impression. The Netherlands certainly took 10 shots, got 6 on target and completed 524 passes, but they didn’t win. The final score of 2-2 shows that a quick, disciplined team capable of attacking spaces can trouble them. Another interesting statistic: despite scoring two goals, the Oranje recorded only approximately 0.785 expected goals. Their efficiency was strong, but their offensive dominance didn’t always produce clear-cut chances.

Dutch individuals remain dangerous. Gakpo, Summerville, Brobbey, Gravenberch, Van Dijk and Frenkie de Jong can make an impact at any time. But these two matches also show that the Netherlands are not impregnable. They can score many goals, but they can also let opponents play. They conceded two goals against Japan and needed a great Verbruggen against Sweden.

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For Morocco, this is valuable information. If the Lions of the Atlas face the Netherlands in the Round of 16, they obviously cannot afford an open and chaotic match. But by staying compact, cutting off supply lines to Gakpo and Brobbey, and exploiting quick transitions, they can pose real problems for the Oranje. The Netherlands impress, but the numbers remind us of one thing: they may not be the bogeymen everyone says they are.