Morocco-Spain Tensions: Analysts Downplay Risk of Armed Conflict Over Territorial Claims

"I say it publicly, and I am the only one to say it, that Morocco is our geopolitical, economic and military enemy," Alvise Pérez declared a few weeks ago, announcing that he would go to the Canary Islands after the summer, accompanied by a group of retired high-ranking army officers, to prepare for any possible attack by Morocco. According to him, the kingdom could before 2030 "decide to invade the Canary Islands, Ceuta and Melilla from all sides." This hypothesis is not founded, say some analysts to El Confidencial, arguing that Morocco does not envisage "imminent" invasion of the Canary Islands or the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla.

No political, social, military or economic sign makes it possible to envisage the possibility of an open conflict in the short term between Morocco and Spain, detail the same sources, recalling that Spain is militarily more powerful than Morocco. "Currently, Morocco does not have military superiority over Spain. And Spain could respond to any type of capacity deficit that could arise in the coming years," confirms Guillermo Pulido, military analyst and editor-in-chief of the magazine Ejercitos. According to the 2023 data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Spain would have made military expenditures of 22 billion euros compared to only 5 billion for Morocco.

Morocco has been strengthening its armed forces for about ten years, with the purchase of Apache AH-64E helicopters, F-16 Viper Block 72 fighters, Barak-MX anti-aircraft systems, PULS missile launchers or WanderB and ThunderB, Bayraktar TB2, and Chinese Wing Loong drones. "But as long as they don’t have Patriot (air defense) or Russian S-400 systems, and they don’t have defense against our Navy or our submarines, I won’t worry too much," explains Yago Rodríguez, military affairs expert and director of The Political Room.

For Pulido, Rabat fears a conflict with Algeria, not with Spain. "They optimize their army to wage war against the Algerian army, as shown by the type of purchases. Morocco has 700 tanks and Algeria about 1,400. Rabat is trying to compensate for its inferiority in artillery and air defense against the Algerian air force," he explains. And he adds: "Spain has more than sufficient capabilities to fight against a massive invasion of Ceuta and Melilla (or the Canary Islands). The Moroccan army is much larger than the Spanish army, especially in terms of troops and tanks, but Spain has air and naval superiority. This attack by Morocco would be suicidal."