Morocco has six weeks to sell its avocados before Israel’s massive arrival

After a season marked by a collapse in production and exports, Moroccan avocados are preparing to return to the European market. The 2026-2027 harvest is expected to be strong in volume.

An exporter interviewed by FreshPlaza identifies a decisive period between weeks 45 and 51, approximately from early November to mid-December. During these six weeks, Morocco could benefit from the decline in Peruvian arrivals and get ahead of the peak in Israeli shipments.

This window would enable the sector to rebound after a particularly difficult 2025-2026 campaign. Moroccan production had remained below 70,000 tonnes and exports at around 50,000 tonnes, a decrease of nearly 50% compared with the previous record season.

On Bladi.net : Moroccan avocado crisis: 50% production drop explained

Initial estimates for the new harvest are considerably more favorable. Production could approach 130,000 tonnes, with larger and more numerous fruits. A recovery already mentioned in early September, when Moroccan producers announced a sharp increase in the harvest.

Israel will arrive in force from the end of December

The main danger lies after mid-December. Israeli avocado production could reach a record 300,000 tonnes, compared with around 240,000 tonnes during the previous campaign. The country’s exports could rise to as much as 165,000 tonnes, including around 100,000 tonnes of the Hass variety alone.

Israeli competition directly concerns Morocco: between 45% and 50% of the avocados exported by Israel are traditionally sold in France, which is also one of the main outlets for Moroccan fruit.

From January onward, Spain should also increase its shipments, with significant volumes expected through April. Colombia could, for its part, bring forward part of its production peak. A postponement of Moroccan sales to January and February would therefore place exporters simultaneously up against three particularly active competitors.

The exporter therefore recommends that Moroccan operators quickly secure their sales programs and maintain regular shipments from the beginning of the campaign. In his view, waiting for prices to recover or concentrating volumes at the end of the season could cause congestion at a time when the European market will be at its most competitive.

Morocco would nevertheless have an advantage with larger sizes, particularly sizes 14 and 16, which are expected to be less abundant from several competing origins. Intermediate sizes, between 18 and 22, will however need to be sold regularly to avoid stock accumulation.

On Bladi.net : Avocado: a formidable competitor for Morocco

The sector’s scheduling challenge: after a decline in yield of nearly 50%, Morocco has an opportunity to regain ground in Europe, but only if it takes advantage of its head start before the massive arrival of Israeli avocados.