Morocco Shifts Military Allegiance: Rafale Jets Deal with France Signals New Era in North African Arms Race

The Royal Air Forces (FRA) are considering acquiring Rafale aircraft from France, more precisely the Dassault Aviation Rafale F4 to replace the Mirage F1CH/EH modernized nearly 20 years ago. According to several sources, a Moroccan order would be placed during the first half of 2026 for delivery of the first examples by 2030-2031, says Avions Légendaires, adding that the potential market for Dassault Aviation is estimated at between 20 and 30 Rafale F4. This order could be accompanied, or followed a few years later, by two to four Airbus Defence A330 MRTT air-to-air refueling aircraft.

Why this interest in this aircraft? In the eyes of the Royal Air Forces (FRA), the U.S. F-16V is not up to par against the Dassault Aviation Rafale F4, a presumed 5th generation fighter. The FRA elements came to this conclusion after the "Marathon 2025" exercise in which five Rafales from the French Air and Space Force participated between June and July, alongside F-16s from the FAR. In addition, Rabat and Paris concluded an agreement in July in Rabat, during a visit by the Armaments General Delegate, Emmanuel Chiva, for the creation of an armaments committee.

This interest in the Dassault Aviation Rafale F4 is also explained by the arms race in which the two neighboring countries have been engaged since the unilateral breakdown of relations between Morocco and Algeria in 2021. The Algerian army is equipping itself with the Sukhoi Su-34 Fullback, more powerful than the F-16V Viper from the American manufacturer Lockheed-Martin. The latter is therefore no match for this penetration and ground attack aircraft that has largely demonstrated its capabilities by becoming an effective tool for Russia in Ukraine. This comparison also motivated Morocco’s choice to acquire the Dassault Aviation Rafale F4.