Morocco Braces for Potential ’Virulent’ Third Wave of COVID-19, Expert Warns

The current third wave in Europe is rapid, with many more new cases, critical cases and deaths due to variants, mainly the British variant, said Dr. Tayeb Hamdi, stressing the virulent nature of the British variant, which is spreading 70% faster than the classic strain, with 60% more virulence and mortality, reports the MAP. "This is what explains the recourse of the countries that have been largely affected to very restrictive measures, including general and widespread confinement, including even the closure of schools," he said.

To support his argument, he explains that with 10,000 people infected with Covid-19 at the beginning of a given month, we will find about 130 deaths at the end of the same month with the classic strain, compared to 7 times more new cases for the British variant, as well as about 10 to 11 times more critical cases and deaths. Out of 1,000 cases of infection by this virus, we observe 4.1 deaths for the British variant against 2.5 for the classic strain, the expert continued, specifying that the reinfection rate (the risk of being infected a second time) is six times higher with the variant. Similarly, the virus reproduction rate (Rt) is revised upwards by a value ranging from 0.4 to 0.7 points according to estimates, with the consequence of a faster epidemic, and a higher vaccination rate to be achieved to ensure collective immunity, he added.

Based on this analysis of the evolution of the epidemic, the expert called on Morocco to avoid this scenario. He thus proposes to the Moroccan authorities to strengthen the respect of barrier measures and territorial measures, as well as their adjustment according to the evolution of the situation. Without strict and widespread compliance, by the entire population, with individual and collective barrier measures, restrictive and territorial measures will never be sufficient enough, said Dr. Hamdi, calling on Morocco to be maximally vigilant.