Morocco’s avocado crop forecast cut sharply as growers question record estimate
Less than a week after a Moroccan crop of 180,000 tonnes was announced, the Moroccan Avocado Association put Hass production at around 100,000 tonnes. The two figures do not cover exactly the same varieties, but reveal sharp disagreement over the scale of the rebound.
On September 22, an exporter estimated Morocco’s next crop at around 180,000 tonnes across all varieties. Between 125,000 and 130,000 tonnes could be exported, he told FreshPlaza.
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The forecast was based in part on new orchards reaching maturity, rainfall recorded through March and favorable temperatures during part of the fruit-growing season.
On Monday, September 28, the Moroccan Avocado Association (MAVA) gave a much more cautious estimate. It expects around 100,000 tonnes of Hass and considers forecasts significantly above that level “not credible,” reports FreshPlaza.
MAVA says it calculated this volume based on cultivated areas, average yields and observations in Gharb and Loukkos, the country’s two main producing regions.
The figures of 180,000 and 100,000 tonnes are not directly comparable: the first covers all varieties, while the second refers to Hass. However, the association disputes the idea that production will return to the levels reached before the poor 2025-2026 season.
Heat weighs on yields
The difference in analysis is mainly due to summer heatwaves. MAVA says they reduced yields. The exporter also acknowledged losses in some areas of Gharb far from the coast, but believed new orchards would offset the damage.
The start of exports confirms this cautious outlook. The first green-skinned varieties are due to ship next week, later than expected, as the fruit has not yet reached the minimum dry matter content of 19% required for sale.
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MAVA does not expect large volumes of these varieties. Their commercial window generally lasts only two to three weeks before larger quantities of Israeli avocados arrive on the market.
