Moroccan Expert Forecasts COVID-19 Peak in Late April to Early May

"According to the epidemiological data we have, and according to the mathematical modeling of the evolution of the epidemic, we can predict, with a reasonable degree of probability, that we could observe the peak between the last week of April and the first week of May," says Prof. Berraho in an interview with the Le360 website.

The Moroccan epidemiologist indicates that the evolution of the epidemic also depends on the nature and effectiveness of the measures put in place. "These are evolving depending on the level of spread of the epidemic. Another element to take into account is the adoption and compliance with hygiene measures and barrier measures by the population, which are difficult to measure at this stage of the epidemic," he notes.

As for the number of deaths recorded, the professor believes that what should be interpreted is the lethality and not just the number of deaths. "Lethality is the number of deaths related to covid-19 (numerator) reported to the number of covid-19 cases (denominator) over a period of time," he explains. "The different lethality rates, measured in the different countries where the epidemic started well before Morocco, show great variation."

"While the number of deaths related to covid-19 is precise, the number of covid-19 cases is very variable. This variability can be partly explained by the ability of different countries to detect sick covid-19 subjects, even in the absence of symptoms. The greater this capacity, the more the number of covid-19 cases increases (denominator), and thus, the lethality decreases," adds the epidemiologist.