Inflation Cools as Food and Fuel Prices Drop: May CPI Shows Surprising Shift

The monthly decline in the overall index is mainly explained by a 0.8% drop in the index of food products and a 0.1% drop in that of non-food products. For food products, the most significant declines concerned vegetables (-2.1%), fish and seafood (-1.7%), meat (-1.5%) and dairy products (-1.0%). On the other hand, the prices of coffee, tea and cocoa increased by 0.8%. The decline in the index of non-food products is mainly attributable to the 2.7% drop in fuel prices.

At the regional level, the most pronounced monthly declines in the CPI were recorded in Beni-Mellal (-1.5%), Safi (-1.2%), Tangier (-1.1%), Kenitra and Errachidia (-0.7%). Other declines were observed in Fez (-0.5%), Oujda (-0.4%) and Casablanca (-0.3%). Conversely, increases were recorded in Laâyoune and Al Hoceima (+0.2%), as well as in Marrakech (+0.1%).

In parallel with these national statistics, the weekly bulletin of "Casablanca Prestations" indicates an upward trend for the prices of red meats in the markets of Casablanca this week, reaching up to 100 DH per kilo. Fruit and vegetable prices, on the other hand, show relative stability.

On an annual basis, the 0.4% increase in the CPI is driven by a 0.5% increase in food products and a 0.3% increase in non-food products. The detailed analysis of the latter category shows significant variations, ranging from a 4.3% decrease in the transport sector to a 3.9% increase in the restaurant and hotel sector.

Finally, the underlying inflation indicator, which excludes volatile and regulated price products, remains stable over one month and shows a 1.1% increase over one year. According to the HCP, this stagnation reflects an overall trend towards the attenuation of price pressures.